Greed and Fear - Daily trading signals based on mathematics and software, no opinion, no emotion, no ego. Now with verified trading results!

Trading results: 
2021 -$1512,00
2020
 +$6098,50
2019 +$8185,00
2018 +$1342,50
2017 +$5843,00
All verified! 
(trading exactly one E-mini S&P 500 future for the Greed and Fear model portfolio)

  • Get with the trend, but how?

    trendThe trading world is known for its beautiful one-liners that are all so true, but at the same time so extremely difficult to practice. Some of the most well known around are: "Cut your losses and let your profits run." or "The trend is your friend." (until it isn't), just to mention a few. Collecting more of those one-liners would be a great subject for another article. This post deals with getting with the trend.

  • Market gurus and their predictions

    financial analystsAs a trader or investor, you certainly have noticed the tons of analysts and self-proclaimed gurus out there who all give their opinion about what will likely happen next in the markets. But are they any good?

    This part 1 of a series. Also, make sure to check out part 2 and part 3.

  • Market gurus and their predictions - Part 2

    financial analystsThe first part of 'Market gurus and their predictions' has really caught some attention. Let's now move on to the next part about this subject.

    Again, as mentioned in part 1, these pages are mostly meant as an eye-opener that almost all of the 'mainstream' analysts have no added value in trading or investing. In fact, flipping a coin has a higher probability of making a correct call about the expected market direction than those analysts. 

  • Market gurus and their predictions - Part 3

    financial analystsAfter part 1 and part 2 of the 'Market gurus and their predictions'-series, there's now part 3. 

  • Market gurus and their predictions - Part 4

    financial analystsAfter part 3, we move on to part 4 of this series of 'Market gurus and their predictions'. If you're new to this, you may want to start with the first part for some additional explanation.

  • Mind the gap: on the daily chart

    mind the gapIn our previous post about gaps, we looked at market behavior around opening-gaps and would generally happen during that same trading session. But nothing spectacular came out, an opening-gap basically meant nothing for further price action that day. Also, the average size of an opening-gap turned out to be a few factors smaller than average daily volatility, so those margins were easily absorbed regardless of whether there was an opening gap or not.

    Now suppose the opening-gap does not get closed during the same trading day. How does affect the market in the next couple of days? Does price gravitate back towards such a gap, as if it wants to pull in price or doesn't it have any significant meaning as we saw in the opening-gaps analysis? Let's dive in.

  • Mind the gap: opening gap

    mind the gapThere's a lot of talk about so-called gaps. General wisdom says they will be closed. But is that true? Is there a statistical edge about gaps that we can use in our trading? Let's find out.

  • Never complain, never explain. You are a trader.

    complain"Never complain, never explain" - it's a well known quote. Famous people have used it, management gurus have used it, too many to accurately determine who initially came up with it. Let's apply this to trading, because trading is probably the ultimate activity where this quote fits extremely well.

  • Remember the time...

    memory laneBeing a short term trader, it's sometimes easy to forget about the larger picture. One could argue that short term traders couldn't care less about the larger picture or the long term view, but that's actually not the case. Trading is a game of chances, and as a trader, you make the trades that are likely to be successful. But it is also obvious that even trades that seem very likely to be successful can fail multiple times in a row.

  • Texas sharpshooter fallacy

    sharpshooter_fallacyEvery now and then when I'm reading an article from the world of behavioral economics discussing a particular phenomenon, it makes you realize once again how much trading and investing is about human behavior.

  • What do you think is your neighbor thinking that you think that he is thinking

    neighbor thinking.... that you are thinking that he is thinking? This is the funny paradox that is a big factor in the financial markets. In 'A mathematician plays the stock market' by John Allen Paulos (it's in my bookstore), the author analyzes where this is going and what it means.

  • You are not a chief economist

    mr know it allMany traders read all the news, rumors, gossips they can get their hands on. And there's always more to read. Then they start convincing each other on chat forums that the market has to go in a certain direction based on that news. In the end they all agree, but we know what happens with crowd consensus.... it's not going to happen.