Actual and verified trading results of the Greed and Fear model portfolio are now available provided by trusted third parties. They are keeping track of the actual trading activity and record each and every trade made, based on the Greed and Fear indicator.

Starting in 2017, it was time to take performance measurement to the next level. Instead of measuring index points that were 'predicted correctly', from now on it will be about actual and verified trading results. These results were achieved by autotrading using one or more autotrading platforms. If you want the same trading result, jump right into becoming an investor to the Greed and Fear portfolio.

Last year, a start was made with verified actual trading results and I will continue doing this moving forward. The result is based on trading only 1 E-mini S&P future with a (minimum) $10.000,- base amount. This is the Greed and Fear model portfolio.

In 2017, a start was made with verified actual trading results, all through a difficult but still profitable 2018. Now we continue doing so for the year 2019. The result is based on trading only 1 E-mini S&P future with a (minimum) $10.000,- base amount. This is the Greed and Fear model portfolio. The accumulated profits now stand at $7185,50 at the start of 2019.

In 2017, a start was made with verified actual trading results. Now we continue doing so for the year 2020. The result is based on trading only 1 E-mini S&P future. This is the Greed and Fear model portfolio. The accumulated profits now stand at $15370,50 at the start of 2020.

In 2017, a start was made with verified actual trading results. Now we continue doing so for the year 2021. 

The total net profit stands at $21469,- at the start of 2021 trading exactly one ES E-mini S&P 500 futures contract. On average this equals $5367,50 net profit per year.

Before you invest in the model portfolio, make sure you understand the risks involved in trading futures.

In 2017, a start was made with verified actual trading results. Now we continue doing so for the year 2022. 

The total net profit stands at $23677,50 at the start of 2022 trading exactly one ES E-mini S&P 500 futures contract. On average this equals $4735,50 net profit per year.

Before you invest in the model portfolio, make sure you understand the risks involved in trading futures.

After a long time of mixed signals and/or difficult market circumstances, all signs were right to take this long trade. The previous day showed a significant rally into the close, the neural networks all turned bullish. 

The market gods still have not given us a significant profitable trade ever since December last year(!) In February we decided to hold off, March now has only two trades. The first was a minor winner, the second a minor loser. And for me, there's a clear thing that stands out: stop loss!

Look again at the first trade this month, especially the chart that shows entry and exit. Then compare this with today's trading chart.

Today was a short trade, not very common in the model portfolio. Most of the time, down days, happen during volatile times which can make it hard to place a correct order (opening en stop loss).

This time, all five neural networks had a perfect bearish outcome, and market circumstances allowed to place a trade that made sense with regard to risk-reward. When that opportunity comes up, even if it 'feels' uncomfortable, it's the right thing to do.

On December 4th, we took the first short trade in a really long time. From many statistics, we know that to be successful with short trades, your timing has to be excellent, especially if trading counter-trend.

This particular short trade was based on a very solid bearish signal after a couple of sideways trading days. So short term, there wasn't really a trend up or down, and taking the strong bearish signal at this point seemed like a reasonable thing to do.

But our stop loss was set very tight, only 9 points above our entry point, which equals to 0,24%. The reasoning behind it was that if the price is able to get above that level, the whole bearish scenario wouldn't make much sense. The logical thing to do was take a small loss. Of course, everything was executed by our preset bracket order, without any no manual interaction.

Again after a wait of several days, the indicator came up with a strong bullish signal. At first, the market turned around when it came only at a 0,25 point close to our entry limit. But a couple of hours later it came back down again and also almost hit our stop loss in the next 30-min bar.

It's been a few days, but this trade had yet to be posted. Once again it is a losing trade, but in execution, all went well. As always, the trading process is the most important thing, the profits will then eventually follow.

Another short trade was made, yet this time not successful. We waited for yesterday's volatility to slow down a bit after initial trading on Wall Street.

Overnight, the market was down significantly but it managed to dig its way out and posted well over +1% at one point. Looking at the daily indicator and intra-day indicators, a short trade was the most favorable trade to make at that moment.

For trading on December 21st, there was a strong bullish signal, so an order was entered and emailed to all investors. The buy limit order was set at a level that has a significant chance of getting touched during an intraday pullback.

Combined with the buy limit, a bracket order was entered to close the position at pre-determined levels. This could be the stop loss (maximum allowed loss) or the sell limit (profit target). If either gets hit, the position is closed and the other remaining order is canceled. 

With the strong signals, mostly bullish, and the lower daily ranges, come more trading opportunities. Sometimes there's a month with no trade at all, and now a couple in a row. It is just unfortunate that currently, they are mostly losing trades.

On the evening of December 8th, an e-mail went out to all investors with a new trading signal. We would buy long again at 3681,00 which is coincidentally the same level as our previous long trade was stopped out on December 7th. The trade was filled in the middle of regular trading hours, but then in less than 2 hours hit our stop loss. Then it kept gyrating around this level into the close.

Finally, there was a clear bullish signal, and the market had been going up very steadily as well. This should be the ideal circumstance for a trade. And so, using the pivot statistics, as usual, an entry and exit were determined.

But bad luck struck, and exactly on this day, traders started to sell. Thanks to our stop loss, the damage was limited by what was determined before we took the trade. After the stop loss was hit, the price dropped another 50 points equalling some $2500,- for one ES E-Mini. Our loss was only $706,-  This is a returning theme as you can tell from other trade reports. Limiting your risk allows you to stay in the business of trading.

Today's trade was again the only one this month. There were some trades set up earlier this month, but they never got filled. Today's trade had an overnight fill and stop-loss as well. At the moment of this writing, that stop-loss also was the exact low(!) This is what the market does sometimes. Good trading is not always rewarded as bad trading is not always punished.

Entry was 0,54% below the previous close, so we were anticipating a decent pullback. Overnight the market went up higher first, some 20 points. Next, it dropped right to our stop-loss and then took off again.

Post edit: later in the session, price drops significantly below our stop-loss level. Who would have thought....

For trading on February 8th, the daily indicators looked very bearish, as well as the intraday indicators. So that justified the decision to plan a short trade. The usual plan in such a scenario is to sell on intraday strength to get those extra points.

Let's see what happened.

The first trade of the new year has taken place, but unfortunately, it was a losing trade again(!) If you look back at the last 5 trades, there was only one small winner, the other 4 were all 'regular' losing trades. As defined by my trading system, a single losing trade can never wipe out the entire account, but one after another can do serious damage.

Another losing trade in the same week, the bad streak does not stop. The trading signal was very bullish, volatility was within a reasonable range, so a high probability trade was set up. But things turned really bad even before regular trading hours.

Finally, we had a profitable trade for the model portfolio. It's still a very minor one, but having losing trade one after another is very decremental to the faith you have as a trader in a specific trading methodology.

Picking a good entry-level and stop loss level is always difficult. But as we can see from the chart, entry was near perfect. But as the trade took place, I could see there was a lot of nervousness going on, even multiple factors compared with an average trading day. Price behavior at the entry was erratic, but then the recovery from that low seemed to set in. The fixed stop loss was pulled up in steps of 5 points very quickly, and lastly, a 4 point profit was locked in. Luckily so, because the market decided to go lower again, even well below our entry. At one point the position was up 32 points, so there was good reason to pull up that stop loss.

This trade was a two-day trade, something we haven't seen in a while. But it's perfectly ok of course. If the indicator keeps pointing in the same direction, there's no need to close the position. Although, some scenario's come to mind where closing and reopening the position could add some extra profit.

Finally a trade! So many limit orders were never hit in recent months, but not this time. Last year's statistics show that a  more aggressive trading style should give us more trades. Combined with the likelihood of our trading edge proven over the years, this should result in a higher net result (after adding up all winning and losing trade results).

Another important change was to gauge the market conditions only hours before the planned trade, maybe even just minutes combining the daily indicator with intra-day indicators. Let's look at what happened next.

Today's trade was the only one this month. Yesterday evening, I entered an order and sent an e-mail to the investors. As always, the order was a limit order anticipating intraday pullback. When the limit was hit, it first looked like an almost exact hit. But an hour later the ES dropped roughly 13 points below the initial entry, and then later that session again.

From that low, it took off right through our profit target. The bracket order is such a fantastic order type that way. Once the profit target is reached, the position is closed automatically and profit taken. Towards the end of the session, we're seeing some selling, getting well below our profit point which always feels good.

Sometimes, when all indicators are 100% pointing in one direction, it may still be difficult to place a high probability trade. On the one hand, you want to get your order filled, on the other, you don't want to get your stop-loss to get hit and preferably a reasonable chance of reaching your target. As always, this is a game of chances, so you want to determine the probabilities for hitting those levels as well as you can. How did that work out in this trade?

At this point, we're seeing the market going mostly sideways for about 8 days. While at the same time, the indicator flips to full 100% bullish mode. Looking at pivot statistics and previous lows, it seemed like a favorable trade would be to enter into a long position around 4175,00. That's quite a significant intraday pullback, but statistics tell us that's not unreasonable to expect.

And indeed, our open buy limit was hit almost perfectly with only getting 0,25 lower as you can see on the chart. But then, a few candles later, the market went even lower. But not long after that, a nice recovery set in, only to give back some of it at the end of the session.

This trade turned out to be almost perfect, buy at the low, sell at the high. But there's also a great deal of luck involved as we will see. But as we know, luck and bad-luck will even out in the long run. This trade is just simply compensation for previous bad luck. Let's see.

The previous trade was a failed short trade, then the indicator flipped back to bullish mode so we set up a long trade. This is the type of flexibility a trader should have. Never chase your yesterday's opinion but take the loss and start over again.

The order was filled near the low of the day, and then the ES E-mini slowly climbed its way higher. At one point the position was up 20 points, so it seemed reasonable to pull up the stop loss. A pullback later in the session hit that stop loss and what was left was only a small profit of $244,00.

Later that session the ES went lower than the stop loss twice but managed close a bit higher. That's always the dilemma, how much of your unrealized profit are you willing to give back to the market before taking that small profit that is left.

It's not very often that you're going to see trades of the day with gains that small. But just looking at the result doesn't tell the whole story here. This is the third trade this month, and the resemblance with the previous two trades is remarkable.

This month too shows that it is not necessary to execute many trades in order to be profitable. Just one trade for the month of April, only one(!) I should add though that 3 limit orders were missed before number 4 was an accurate hit and profitable. The position ran 4 days, which is above average for my trading.

Still, it should be better to make slightly more trades so that trading results more accurately reflect the neural network's performance. In other words, the last couple of winners could just be lucky shots. At some point, the losing trades will return and then it will be necessary to keep trading in order to align with the long term statistics.

So in short, April brought us a net profit of  $1169,00 trading only one S&P E-mini future contract. The performance of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for this year now stands at a net result of  $5820,00.

This month started with a continuation of the volatility of March, so I was very hesitant to put up a trade. Then later this month, the trade that was set up never hit its limit. Two days later, I tried again for the same anticipated trajectory and this time it hit perfectly making it one of the biggest wins in a single trade with a single future (116 points).

This last month, April of 2021 had a lot of mixed signals, slightly bullish one day, slightly bearish the next. In general, I'm not a big fan of short trades in a bull market, so on those days, no trade was placed.

Then we had the FOMC day, which also in general I prefer to watch being flat. In the past, FOMC could really shake the market and hit stop-loss orders that were both above and under the market within a 1% reach or so. Nowadays, it seems the market has a much more calm reaction to those events compared to a couple of years ago. 

Two signals were sent in April. In the first, the limit price was just missed, after which the price still shot in the intended direction. Of course, we see this more often, there is a big difference between a "sideline analyst" and a trader.

In the second trade, the limit was indeed touched, but the price immediately dropped to our stop loss. Furthermore, we have seen considerable intra-day movements during the last few weeks. Sometimes these are so big that a position with a stop loss or a trailing stop loss will almost always be stopped out. And in addition, there are sometimes trading days on which the price immediately goes in one direction from the start, so that there is no nice intra-day counter-trend moment to take the position.

There were no trades made in the month of August, mainly due to the holiday season and increased volatility. As explained in other posts, increased volatility makes it difficult to find sensible entry and exit levels or stop-loss levels.

The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio hasn't changed, now adding August with $0,00 result.

The stockmarket's performance has been stellar for yet another month, while all the negative sentiment from the Covid-19 news is just neglected. The difficulty of accepting those two facts is a significant part of trader psychology. Just take a look at the recorded recommendations from all the market gurus lately, those were mostly terrible.

This month, of the three orders that were entered, only one order was actually filled. The other two had buying limits that were never hit during the trading session. The one order that was filled, turned into a losing trade, unfortunately.

When recent volatility is significantly higher or lower than overall averages, you have to adjust your entries and exits. When volatility is high, entry and stop-loss orders have to be set wider and vice versa. So in a low volatility environment, you should not expect a deep intraday pullback. It's more likely it will just float a little higher from the start of the session, thus missing your buy limit order.

Unfortunately, no trades were made in December. Market movement in or around holidays is usually on lower volume and movement (if any) seems more random. 

December had 4 trades, of which 3 were losers and just one small winner. The first trade was a short trade, not very common, but opportunities seemed right. The second one was a long trade and looked very promising, but was stopped out with only a small profit left. The third and fourth were stopped on maximum loss. But especially, the last one showed the importance of having a fixed and automatic (instead of mental) stop loss(!)

In total, this resulted in making December almost the worst performing month of this year. 

The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2020 has been updated.

The Greed and Fear model portfolio has had a difficult time finding good entries in the last 3 months of 2021. The market often left without us being there. As explained in many previous posts, the trick is to join after a pullback, but of course without hitting the stop loss. This proved especially difficult with higher volatility. Even when the volatility is average in percentage terms, in points it means a higher and higher amount because of the higher and higher prices. Fortunately, at least no losses were incurred in these last months.

After a negative January, another losing month is posted. In February the Greed and Fear model portfolio lost $768,50 in only one trade. Not much later, we had a couple of the craziest trading days ever since the 2008/09 crash

February had no trades at all. In the last two months, it seems as if the neural networks were a bit out of tune with the markets. And when we look at simulation results over time, such an underperformance takes place every now and then. In such an event, it may be wise to take a step back and review all steps and procedures.

Looking back, no critical errors were made. During this month, the neural networks were a bit more finetuned, but not very significantly.

The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2021 hasn't changed.

The trading results for February 2022 can be seen and are unfortunately negative. This month there were two losing trades which were both stopped out at the trailing stop loss.

The year started off with the worst month in a long time. Two trades, both losing ones, causing a total loss of $1524,50 Order execution was according to plan, but that does not guarantee success.

January had 2 trades, both losing trades. The first one had this terrible stop loss, where the market pushed to maximum loss and then returning back up in the anticipated direction.

This is the type of trade that causes doubt in the trader's mind the next time a stop loss is about to get hit. As mentioned several times, good trading is not always rewarded, and bad trading not always punished.

The second trade was the classic example of how a stop loss is protecting your account from getting wiped out in a single trade.

The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2021 has been updated.

Dear traders, in the first month of 2022, the model portfolio has clearly made an adjustment in the trading method as already announced in the previous update. Due to a slightly more aggressive trading method, a wider stop loss, and taking current market conditions into account, more trades are expected to come. The trading edge in combination with a favorable risk-reward should produce a positive trading result after sufficient trades.

July trading was again slow. I missed a few entries, once only by 0,25 points, but that's how it is. Trading is not about what 'could-have-been' or 'if-only-I-had-done-so-and-so'. Only the actual trades with real results is the only thing that matters.

So, in the end, there were two trades. One trade was up quite big initially, but then the market took it back and my stop loss was hit. This left only a small profit. The other was solid and closed at the end of the week. Closing into the weekend is like a safety measure, anything can happen that could strongly move the markets on the open on Monday. It's also good for mental rest, not worrying about how the markets may react after the weekend.

All in all, the net trading result for July was $1.275,50. The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio shows all the monthly latest results.

July was mostly a summer holiday month, there was only one trade. Luckily this single trade was a good one, recovering the losing trades of last month. This shows once again that having several losing trades is not necessarily devastating to your portfolio. It's just that those losing trades should not be too big, so you can recover from them.

The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2020 has been updated.

For the month of July 2021, only one trade was made. This was a losing trade at a full stop loss. And it once again showed us that having a stop loss in place when trading is absolutely required to stay in business. You can read all about that particular trade right here. 

No trades were made in the month of June. After the low of early June, the neural network had a hard time making sense of market behavior at the time. I wanted to wait for it to pick up and get in tune, but it never really did.

So instead, time was spent on further development and as a result, some progress was made which looks promising for production use. Let's see how that works out in July.

Of course, the yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio hasn't changed.