Actual and verified trading results of the Greed and Fear model portfolio are now available provided by trusted third parties. They are keeping track of the actual trading activity and record each and every trade made, based on the Greed and Fear indicator.

Starting in 2017, it was time to take performance measurement to the next level. Instead of measuring index points that were 'predicted correctly', from now on it will be about actual and verified trading results. These results were achieved by autotrading using one or more autotrading platforms. If you want the same trading result, jump right into becoming an investor to the Greed and Fear portfolio.

Last year, a start was made with verified actual trading results and I will continue doing this moving forward. The result is based on trading only 1 E-mini S&P future with a (minimum) $10.000,- base amount. This is the Greed and Fear model portfolio.

In 2017, a start was made with verified actual trading results, all through a difficult but still profitable 2018. Now we continue doing so for the year 2019. The result is based on trading only 1 E-mini S&P future with a (minimum) $10.000,- base amount. This is the Greed and Fear model portfolio. The accumulated profits now stand at $7185,50 at the start of 2019.

In 2017, a start was made with verified actual trading results. Now we continue doing so for the year 2020. The result is based on trading only 1 E-mini S&P future. This is the Greed and Fear model portfolio. The accumulated profits now stand at $15370,50 at the start of 2020.

In 2017, a start was made with verified actual trading results. Now we continue doing so for the year 2021. 

The total net profit stands at $21469,- at the start of 2021 trading exactly one ES E-mini S&P 500 future contract. On average this equals $5367,50 net profit per year.

Before you invest in the model portfolio, make sure you understand the risks involved in trading futures.

On December 4th, we took the first short trade in a really long time. From many statistics, we know that to be successful with short trades, your timing has to be excellent, especially if trading counter-trend.

This particular short trade was based on a very solid bearish signal after a couple of sideways trading days. So short term, there wasn't really a trend up or down, and taking the strong bearish signal at this point seemed like a reasonable thing to do.

But our stop loss was set very tight, only 9 points above our entry point, which equals to 0,24%. The reasoning behind it was that if the price is able to get above that level, the whole bearish scenario wouldn't make much sense. The logical thing to do was take a small loss. Of course, everything was executed by our preset bracket order, without any no manual interaction.

For trading on December 21st, there was a strong bullish signal, so an order was entered and emailed to all investors. The buy limit order was set at a level that has a significant chance of getting touched during an intraday pullback.

Combined with the buy limit, a bracket order was entered to close the position at pre-determined levels. This could be the stop loss (maximum allowed loss) or the sell limit (profit target). If either gets hit, the position is closed and the other remaining order is canceled. 

With the strong signals, mostly bullish, and the lower daily ranges, come more trading opportunities. Sometimes there's a month with no trade at all, and now a couple in a row. It is just unfortunate that currently, they are mostly losing trades.

On the evening of December 8th, an e-mail went out to all investors with a new trading signal. We would buy long again at 3681,00 which is coincidentally the same level as our previous long trade was stopped out on December 7th. The trade was filled in the middle of regular trading hours, but then in less than 2 hours hit our stop loss. Then it kept gyrating around this level into the close.

Today's trade was again the only one this month. There were some trades set up earlier this month, but they never got filled. Today's trade had an overnight fill and stop-loss as well. At the moment of this writing, that stop-loss also was the exact low(!) This is what the market does sometimes. Good trading is not always rewarded as bad trading is not always punished.

Entry was 0,54% below the previous close, so we were anticipating a decent pullback. Overnight the market went up higher first, some 20 points. Next, it dropped right to our stop-loss and then took off again.

Post edit: later in the session, price drops significantly below our stop-loss level. Who would have thought....

The first trade of the new year has taken place, but unfortunately, it was a losing trade again(!) If you look back at the last 5 trades, there was only one small winner, the other 4 were all 'regular' losing trades. As defined by my trading system, a single losing trade can never wipe out the entire account, but one after another can do serious damage.

Another losing trade in the same week, the bad streak does not stop. The trading signal was very bullish, volatility was within a reasonable range, so a high probability trade was set up. But things turned really bad even before regular trading hours.

Today's trade was the only one this month. Yesterday evening, I entered an order and sent an e-mail to the investors. As always, the order was a limit order anticipating intraday pullback. When the limit was hit, it first looked like an almost exact hit. But an hour later the ES dropped roughly 13 points below the initial entry, and then later that session again.

From that low, it took off right through our profit target. The bracket order is such a fantastic order type that way. Once the profit target is reached, the position is closed automatically and profit taken. Towards the end of the session, we're seeing some selling, getting well below our profit point which always feels good.

The previous trade was a failed short trade, then the indicator flipped back to bullish mode so we set up a long trade. This is the type of flexibility a trader should have. Never chase your yesterday's opinion but take the loss and start over again.

The order was filled near the low of the day, and then the ES E-mini slowly climbed its way higher. At one point the position was up 20 points, so it seemed reasonable to pull up the stop loss. A pullback later in the session hit that stop loss and what was left was only a small profit of $244,00.

Later that session the ES went lower than the stop loss twice but managed close a bit higher. That's always the dilemma, how much of your unrealized profit are you willing to give back to the market before taking that small profit that is left.

This month too shows that it is not necessary to execute many trades in order to be profitable. Just one trade for the month of April, only one(!) I should add though that 3 limit orders were missed before number 4 was an accurate hit and profitable. The position ran 4 days, which is above average for my trading.

Still, it should be better to make slightly more trades so that trading results more accurately reflect the neural network's performance. In other words, the last couple of winners could just be lucky shots. At some point, the losing trades will return and then it will be necessary to keep trading in order to align with the long term statistics.

So in short, April brought us a net profit of  $1169,00 trading only one S&P E-mini future contract. The performance of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for this year now stands at a net result of  $5820,00.

This month started with a continuation of the volatility of March, so I was very hesitant to put up a trade. Then later this month, the trade that was set up never hit its limit. Two days later, I tried again for the same anticipated trajectory and this time it hit perfectly making it one of the biggest wins in a single trade with a single future (116 points).

There were no trades made in the month of August, mainly due to the holiday season and increased volatility. As explained in other posts, increased volatility makes it difficult to find sensible entry and exit levels or stop-loss levels.

The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio hasn't changed, now adding August with $0,00 result.

The stockmarket's performance has been stellar for yet another month, while all the negative sentiment from the Covid-19 news is just neglected. The difficulty of accepting those two facts is a significant part of trader psychology. Just take a look at the recorded recommendations from all the market gurus lately, those were mostly terrible.

Unfortunately, no trades were made in December. Market movement in or around holidays is usually on lower volume and movement (if any) seems more random. 

December had 4 trades, of which 3 were losers and just one small winner. The first trade was a short trade, not very common, but opportunities seemed right. The second one was a long trade and looked very promising, but was stopped out with only a small profit left. The third and fourth were stopped on maximum loss. But especially, the last one showed the importance of having a fixed and automatic (instead of mental) stop loss(!)

In total, this resulted in making December almost the worst performing month of this year. 

The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2020 has been updated.

After a negative January, another losing month is posted. In February the Greed and Fear model portfolio lost $768,50 in only one trade. Not much later, we had a couple of the craziest trading days ever since the 2008/09 crash

February had no trades at all. In the last two months, it seems as if the neural networks were a bit out of tune with the markets. And when we look at simulation results over time, such an underperformance takes place every now and then. In such an event, it may be wise to take a step back and review all steps and procedures.

Looking back, no critical errors were made. During this month, the neural networks were a bit more finetuned, but not very significantly.

The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2021 hasn't changed.

The year started off with the worst month in a long time. Two trades, both losing ones, causing a total loss of $1524,50 Order execution was according to plan, but that does not guarantee success.

January had 2 trades, both losing trades. The first one had this terrible stop loss, where the market pushed to maximum loss and then returning back up in the anticipated direction.

This is the type of trade that causes doubt in the trader's mind the next time a stop loss is about to get hit. As mentioned several times, good trading is not always rewarded, and bad trading not always punished.

The second trade was the classic example of how a stop loss is protecting your account from getting wiped out in a single trade.

The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2021 has been updated.

July trading was again slow. I missed a few entries, once only by 0,25 points, but that's how it is. Trading is not about what 'could-have-been' or 'if-only-I-had-done-so-and-so'. Only the actual trades with real results is the only thing that matters.

So, in the end, there were two trades. One trade was up quite big initially, but then the market took it back and my stop loss was hit. This left only a small profit. The other was solid and closed at the end of the week. Closing into the weekend is like a safety measure, anything can happen that could strongly move the markets on the open on Monday. It's also good for mental rest, not worrying about how the markets may react after the weekend.

All in all, the net trading result for July was $1.275,50. The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio shows all the monthly latest results.

July was mostly a summer holiday month, there was only one trade. Luckily this single trade was a good one, recovering the losing trades of last month. This shows once again that having several losing trades is not necessarily devastating to your portfolio. It's just that those losing trades should not be too big, so you can recover from them.

The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2020 has been updated.

No trades were made in the month of June. After the low of early June, the neural network had a hard time making sense of market behavior at the time. I wanted to wait for it to pick up and get in tune, but it never really did.

So instead, time was spent on further development and as a result, some progress was made which looks promising for production use. Let's see how that works out in July.

Of course, the yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio hasn't changed.

The month of June was a tough one for the Greed and Fear model portfolio. The neural network made a lot of false predictions. It wanted to go short for most of the month, but that didn' t work out too well since the S&P 500 rallied most of the time. And the occasional long signal also turned out false.

There were three long trades, all three losing trades. One was stopped out overnight after some Twitter messages, where the futures suddenly dropped 50 points and then quickly recovered. The other two trades went almost directly from entry to stop loss after which prices continued to fall to close 5% lower on the day. That's why having a fixed stop loss in place is so extremely important.

That's just the nature of trading, you can do everything right and still lose money. In total, a loss of $2543,00 was posted. The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2020 has been updated.

Much like last month, some limit orders missed their entry by only a few points. This left us with only two trades in March, one a loser, one a winner. And just like the trading textbooks advise us to do, the loser was kept small, the winner big. This resulted in a net profit of $1038,- this month for the Greed and Fear model portfolio bringing the total for 2019 at +$4651,- by trading only exactly one E-mini S&P future.

For the month of March, no trades were made in the Greed and Fear portfolio. The daily volatility was just too big to find any sensible entry and stop loss.

Up until now, it looks as if we may have found a bottom in the major indices on March 23rd. Recovery from that point on looks credible. 

The first losing month of this year is now a fact. In total 4 trades were made, of which only one small winner. The three others were 'normal' losses, and thanks to having our stop losses in place, those losses did not completely destroy the model portfolio.

The huge market recovery since the March lows has surprised many traders and investors. Just look at the guru predictions I collected during these volatile times.

Anyway, for the Greed and Fear portfolio, another green month was added. The month started with a regular losing trade that went straight to the stop loss. The next trade almost exactly compensated for this loss. Then a third trade put this month well into the green with a net monthly result of $1682,-

The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2020 has been updated.

November trading was slow, just one trade, an average winner. For a significant part of November, the S&P went mostly sideways which is difficult to trade.

November again did not give us many signals. In total there were 4 trades set up, but only one got filled which turned out to be a losing one. The net result for November is set at -$706,00

The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2020 has been updated.

October finally showed some activity in the Greed and Fear model portfolio.

The month started with a losing trade, which was an unfortunate one. Getting stopped out and then seeing the market going your anticipated way is always tough. The market pulled back big and then recovered. So trading execution was absolutely correct, it just wasn't rewarded. The same way incorrect execution is sometimes profitable. This is one of the most difficult aspects of trading and not get tempted to ignore trading rules and move stops.

For the month of October, we don't have a single completed trade in the books. We placed two trades, but both were never filled. And again, the neural networks kept contradicting one and another, not giving clear signals on most trading days.

Coming week, we have elections in the US and also FOMC day on Thursday, so I'm expecting a lot of volatility in the days and possibly weeks ahead. Capital preservation is our number one concern, so you probably shouldn't expect any trades this week.

The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2020 hasn't changed.

Again no trades were made last month. Some very promising orders were placed but unfortunately never filled. Meanwhile, a lot of work is done improving the Tradebot. This software is able to trade completely autonomously, opening and closing position all by itself without human intervention. This is unlike how trading takes place so far with a manually entered bracket-order, only once per day maximum.

Also, it will likely trade at a much higher frequency, maybe up to 10 trades each and every day. So far it has never made it to production and for a while, development stood completely still. That may change soon.

The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio hasn't changed, now adding September with $0,00 result.

The stockmarket's behavior this month was very difficult to get a grip on. The neural networks kept contradicting one and another, not giving clear signals on most trading days. It wasn't until the last day of the month, the neural networks had a clear bullish signal. The trade that was entered worked out, more on that here.

The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2020 has been updated.