Two signals were sent in April. In the first, the limit price was just missed, after which the price still shot in the intended direction. Of course, we see this more often, there is a big difference between a "sideline analyst" and a trader.
In the second trade, the limit was indeed touched, but the price immediately dropped to our stop loss. Furthermore, we have seen considerable intra-day movements during the last few weeks. Sometimes these are so big that a position with a stop loss or a trailing stop loss will almost always be stopped out. And in addition, there are sometimes trading days on which the price immediately goes in one direction from the start, so that there is no nice intra-day counter-trend moment to take the position.
The month of May had a significantly higher daily volatility. On average, the ES E-Mini has a daily range from low to high of 1.6% In May, this averaged 2.8% This means that after the open buy or sell of a trade, there is a high probability that the stop loss will also be hit.
Furthermore, on many trading days, we saw that the futures immediately chose a specific direction from the opening. The trading method of the model portfolio is based on the fact that, on average, there is always some counter-movement intraday. In anticipation of that small counter-movement, a limit order is placed, but that opportunity thus occurred less frequently. The only signal that was sent had a limit price which unfortunately was not hit.
Also in June, significantly higher volatility could be measured in the S&P 500 and the ES E-Mini S&P 500 futures. The average for the ES was 2.5% and for the S&P 500 over 2% where this is normally around 1.5% for both. We can note that this is slightly lower than in May.
Due to the summer holiday, a (very) late monthly update this time. So, that's why the trades in July have been combined in this monthly post. In previous months, there have been orders, but none of those orders resulted in actual trades. This meant that in most of the cases, the anticipated direction was correct, but the price never touched our limit price. For the month of July, more trades were made, but on all occasions, the market decided to move against our expectations causing multiple losing trades.
Let's go through them one by one.
After a long time of mixed signals and/or difficult market circumstances, all signs were right to take this long trade. The previous day showed a significant rally into the close, the neural networks all turned bullish.
All daily articles with regard to the short term market movement will go here.
This page will show all actions performed by the Greed And Fear TradeBot. The tradebot is still in development and it will take some time for this to be integrated into the website. The current idea is to have the Greed and Fear Tradebot post al its actions to the Twitter stream. Development is going very well, and things look very promising.