All daily articles with regard to the short term market movement will go here.
For the month of March, no trades were made in the Greed and Fear portfolio. The daily volatility was just too big to find any sensible entry and stop loss.
Up until now, it looks as if we may have found a bottom in the major indices on March 23rd. Recovery from that point on looks credible.
After a negative January, another losing month is posted. In February the Greed and Fear model portfolio lost $768,50 in only one trade. Not much later, we had a couple of the craziest trading days ever since the 2008/09 crash
The year started off with the worst month in a long time. Two trades, both losing ones, causing a total loss of $1524,50 Order execution was according to plan, but that does not guarantee success.
October finally showed some activity in the Greed and Fear model portfolio.
The month started with a losing trade, which was an unfortunate one. Getting stopped out and then seeing the market going your anticipated way is always tough. The market pulled back big and then recovered. So trading execution was absolutely correct, it just wasn't rewarded. The same way incorrect execution is sometimes profitable. This is one of the most difficult aspects of trading and not get tempted to ignore trading rules and move stops.
Again no trades were made last month. Some very promising orders were placed but unfortunately never filled. Meanwhile, a lot of work is done improving the Tradebot. This software is able to trade completely autonomously, opening and closing position all by itself without human intervention. This is unlike how trading takes place so far with a manually entered bracket-order, only once per day maximum.
Also, it will likely trade at a much higher frequency, maybe up to 10 trades each and every day. So far it has never made it to production and for a while, development stood completely still. That may change soon.
The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio hasn't changed, now adding September with $0,00 result.
There were no trades made in the month of August, mainly due to the holiday season and increased volatility. As explained in other posts, increased volatility makes it difficult to find sensible entry and exit levels or stop-loss levels.
The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio hasn't changed, now adding August with $0,00 result.
July trading was again slow. I missed a few entries, once only by 0,25 points, but that's how it is. Trading is not about what 'could-have-been' or 'if-only-I-had-done-so-and-so'. Only the actual trades with real results is the only thing that matters.
So, in the end, there were two trades. One trade was up quite big initially, but then the market took it back and my stop loss was hit. This left only a small profit. The other was solid and closed at the end of the week. Closing into the weekend is like a safety measure, anything can happen that could strongly move the markets on the open on Monday. It's also good for mental rest, not worrying about how the markets may react after the weekend.
All in all, the net trading result for July was $1.275,50. The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio shows all the monthly latest results.
No trades were made in the month of June. After the low of early June, the neural network had a hard time making sense of market behavior at the time. I wanted to wait for it to pick up and get in tune, but it never really did.
So instead, time was spent on further development and as a result, some progress was made which looks promising for production use. Let's see how that works out in July.
Of course, the yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio hasn't changed.
The first losing month of this year is now a fact. In total 4 trades were made, of which only one small winner. The three others were 'normal' losses, and thanks to having our stop losses in place, those losses did not completely destroy the model portfolio.
This month too shows that it is not necessary to execute many trades in order to be profitable. Just one trade for the month of April, only one(!) I should add though that 3 limit orders were missed before number 4 was an accurate hit and profitable. The position ran 4 days, which is above average for my trading.
Still, it should be better to make slightly more trades so that trading results more accurately reflect the neural network's performance. In other words, the last couple of winners could just be lucky shots. At some point, the losing trades will return and then it will be necessary to keep trading in order to align with the long term statistics.
So in short, April brought us a net profit of $1169,00 trading only one S&P E-mini future contract. The performance of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for this year now stands at a net result of $5820,00.
Much like last month, some limit orders missed their entry by only a few points. This left us with only two trades in March, one a loser, one a winner. And just like the trading textbooks advise us to do, the loser was kept small, the winner big. This resulted in a net profit of $1038,- this month for the Greed and Fear model portfolio bringing the total for 2019 at +$4651,- by trading only exactly one E-mini S&P future.
February was a strange trading month. In total 9 limit orders were placed on 9 different days (because of the one trade per day max rule), but sadly none of them were filled(!) That includes the roughly 5 most significant movers of February. So the anticipated direction was correct each time, but the intra-day pull back just wasn't deep enough to get a fill.