All daily articles with regard to the short term market movement will go here.
The month of June was a tough one for the Greed and Fear model portfolio. The neural network made a lot of false predictions. It wanted to go short for most of the month, but that didn' t work out too well since the S&P 500 rallied most of the time. And the occasional long signal also turned out false.
There were three long trades, all three losing trades. One was stopped out overnight after some Twitter messages, where the futures suddenly dropped 50 points and then quickly recovered. The other two trades went almost directly from entry to stop loss after which prices continued to fall to close 5% lower on the day. That's why having a fixed stop loss in place is so extremely important.
That's just the nature of trading, you can do everything right and still lose money. In total, a loss of $2543,00 was posted. The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2020 has been updated.
The huge market recovery since the March lows has surprised many traders and investors. Just look at the guru predictions I collected during these volatile times.
Anyway, for the Greed and Fear portfolio, another green month was added. The month started with a regular losing trade that went straight to the stop loss. The next trade almost exactly compensated for this loss. Then a third trade put this month well into the green with a net monthly result of $1682,-
The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2020 has been updated.
This month started with a continuation of the volatility of March, so I was very hesitant to put up a trade. Then later this month, the trade that was set up never hit its limit. Two days later, I tried again for the same anticipated trajectory and this time it hit perfectly making it one of the biggest wins in a single trade with a single future (116 points).
For the month of March, no trades were made in the Greed and Fear portfolio. The daily volatility was just too big to find any sensible entry and stop loss.
Up until now, it looks as if we may have found a bottom in the major indices on March 23rd. Recovery from that point on looks credible.
After a negative January, another losing month is posted. In February the Greed and Fear model portfolio lost $768,50 in only one trade. Not much later, we had a couple of the craziest trading days ever since the 2008/09 crash
The year started off with the worst month in a long time. Two trades, both losing ones, causing a total loss of $1524,50 Order execution was according to plan, but that does not guarantee success.
October finally showed some activity in the Greed and Fear model portfolio.
The month started with a losing trade, which was an unfortunate one. Getting stopped out and then seeing the market going your anticipated way is always tough. The market pulled back big and then recovered. So trading execution was absolutely correct, it just wasn't rewarded. The same way incorrect execution is sometimes profitable. This is one of the most difficult aspects of trading and not get tempted to ignore trading rules and move stops.
Again no trades were made last month. Some very promising orders were placed but unfortunately never filled. Meanwhile, a lot of work is done improving the Tradebot. This software is able to trade completely autonomously, opening and closing position all by itself without human intervention. This is unlike how trading takes place so far with a manually entered bracket-order, only once per day maximum.
Also, it will likely trade at a much higher frequency, maybe up to 10 trades each and every day. So far it has never made it to production and for a while, development stood completely still. That may change soon.
The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio hasn't changed, now adding September with $0,00 result.
There were no trades made in the month of August, mainly due to the holiday season and increased volatility. As explained in other posts, increased volatility makes it difficult to find sensible entry and exit levels or stop-loss levels.
The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio hasn't changed, now adding August with $0,00 result.
July trading was again slow. I missed a few entries, once only by 0,25 points, but that's how it is. Trading is not about what 'could-have-been' or 'if-only-I-had-done-so-and-so'. Only the actual trades with real results is the only thing that matters.
So, in the end, there were two trades. One trade was up quite big initially, but then the market took it back and my stop loss was hit. This left only a small profit. The other was solid and closed at the end of the week. Closing into the weekend is like a safety measure, anything can happen that could strongly move the markets on the open on Monday. It's also good for mental rest, not worrying about how the markets may react after the weekend.
All in all, the net trading result for July was $1.275,50. The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio shows all the monthly latest results.
No trades were made in the month of June. After the low of early June, the neural network had a hard time making sense of market behavior at the time. I wanted to wait for it to pick up and get in tune, but it never really did.
So instead, time was spent on further development and as a result, some progress was made which looks promising for production use. Let's see how that works out in July.
Of course, the yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio hasn't changed.
The first losing month of this year is now a fact. In total 4 trades were made, of which only one small winner. The three others were 'normal' losses, and thanks to having our stop losses in place, those losses did not completely destroy the model portfolio.