Greed and Fear - Daily trading signals based on mathematics and software, no opinion, no emotion, no ego. Now with verified trading results!

trading updateThe most important item this month was the bug! It was discovered and fixed and the effect already shows.

But first let's recap what happened this month in this Greed & Fear trading update for the month of June.

The first thing that jumps out is the higher number of trades compared to previous months. There were 9 of them, significantly more than the 4 or 5 we usually see. It turned out that by not taking every signal and put on a trade, I was sometimes missing out on some great trades. At least, that used to be the case. Then came April and May which were horrible in every way, model-performance and trading the same. 

This bad performance continued into June. Just look at the verified trading results. So taking more trades right at this time made things even worse. The P&L curve is a sort of stair-case going lower every step. It's not a sudden blow-out as we've seen in other portfolios elsewhere very often, but stop losses getting hit on every trade. How could this be when the neural network did so well in simulated runs over 10 years of trading days?! Something had be to wrong. Indeed, there was a bug...

The bug was fixed late June, I took the signals, put on the trades and finished June with some great gains only in the last couple of days flipping a losing June into a profitable June! Had I only discovered the bug earlier....

Check out the latest numbers of the Greed and Fear model portfolio.