Greed and Fear - Daily trading signals based on mathematics and software, no opinion, no emotion, no ego. Now with verified trading results!

Trading results: 
2022 -$3119,00
2021
 +$2190,50
2020
 +$6098,50
2019 +$8185,00
2018 +$1342,50
2017 +$5843,00
All verified! 
(trading exactly one ES E-Mini S&P 500 future for the Greed and Fear model portfolio)

trading update

For the month of July 2021, only one trade was made. This was a losing trade at a full stop loss. And it once again showed us that having a stop loss in place when trading is absolutely required to stay in business. You can read all about that particular trade right here

But what is somewhat worrying to me is the poor performance of the indicator itself this month. When you look at all the daily indicator signals for July, it had a result measured in index points of -107! If all signals were traded with one ES E-Mini, the dollar loss would be -107 x $50,- =  -$5350,- 

A good habit though is not to trade the countertrend signals in general. And for the most part this month, the indicator wanted to go short. During the down days halfway the month this would have been profitable. But during the days following that period, all of it would have been given back and much more(!) From historical results, we know this sometimes happens, but it's still difficult how to deal what those types of circumstances. When will the indicator pick up and get a better reading of the market? We can only wait and see. And because June had a net result of -10 index points (but still profitable), it looks like the indicator is a bit off.

So in the meantime, I'm also trying to discover if the indicator, the neural network, is missing some piece of information (=market data) to make a more accurate assessment of future price movement. 

Also, right before previous big market downturns, sometimes the indicator started to produce more and more bearish signals, even while the market was still going up. So maybe there are some subtle signals that a more significant down move in the market is coming our way.

The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2021 has been updated.