Greed and Fear - Daily trading signals based on mathematics and software, no opinion, no emotion, no ego. Now with verified trading results!

Trading results: 
2022 -$894,50
2021
 +$2190,50
2020
 +$6098,50
2019 +$8185,00
2018 +$1342,50
2017 +$5843,00
All verified! 
(trading exactly one ES E-Mini S&P 500 future for the Greed and Fear model portfolio)

trading updateThis trade turned out to be almost perfect, buy at the low, sell at the high. But there's also a great deal of luck involved as we will see. But as we know, luck and bad-luck will even out in the long run. This trade is just simply compensation for previous bad luck. Let's see.

Because we had a lower close on the previous day, an initial downward move had to be expected. That meant we could put our limit buy order relatively low and statistically still have a decent chance of getting our order filled. This is exactly what happened, and from the chart, you can see it only broke our buying level 4489,00 by 3,5 points and then reversed back to the upside. It climbed all the way up to our profit target of 4529,00 which also turned out to be the exact high of the day. That second high candle with an optical high of 4529,25 is an error. In my market tick logging, I could see that 4529,25 was never traded. 

So what happened at 4529,00? My order got filled, meaning my sell limit to take profit was indeed filled at that price, closing the position with a profit. But not for everyone! I know for a fact of someone whose sell limit was not filled. What happens at every price level is, a queue of orders from both the buy and sell-side are matched to make the trades. But since the price only very briefly touched 4529,00 not all sellers were served because only part of that queue of orders was handled before buyers stopped buying at 4529,00 and the price started to move lower again. This is extremely rare and I can't remember seeing a phenomenon like this before.

20210909 trade of the day