Greed and Fear - Daily trading signals based on mathematics and software, no opinion, no emotion, no ego. Now with verified trading results!

Trading results: 
2022 -$3119,00
2021
 +$2190,50
2020
 +$6098,50
2019 +$8185,00
2018 +$1342,50
2017 +$5843,00
All verified! 
(trading exactly one ES E-Mini S&P 500 future for the Greed and Fear model portfolio)

This section is called Trading and contains subcategories Market psychology and Rules. Below you will see the total of all articles in both categories. To filter for either one of them, click the appropriate category in the menu on the left-hand side.

traffic lanesEvery now and then, you run into a situation in real life that triggers the trading mind and makes you look at the situation from a traders viewpoint.

diceIt has been mentioned in many posts here and elsewhere: to be successful in trading, you need a completely different mindset than the average person.

complain"Never complain, never explain" - it's a well known quote. Famous people have used it, management gurus have used it, too many to accurately determine who initially came up with it. Let's apply this to trading, because trading is probably the ultimate activity where this quote fits extremely well.

electronic quote boardSometimes, the most simple and basic ideas can lead to better performance in trading. As we know, trading is a lot about having rules and obeying them. Maybe, when those rules are complex or can be bent, it's more likely that they will be broken. A simple rule has, therefore a good chance of being applied in a very rigid and disciplined way. In this article, I will share a very basic and easy rule that I use and have used for quite some time now. I call it the One-Trade-Per-Day rule. As you can guess from the name, that doesn't sound like a very ingenious idea. And it isn't, but it works.

sharpshooter_fallacyEvery now and then when I'm reading an article from the world of behavioral economics discussing a particular phenomenon, it makes you realize once again how much trading and investing is about human behavior.

trendThe trading world is known for its beautiful one-liners that are all so true, but at the same time so extremely difficult to practice. Some of the most well known around are: "Cut your losses and let your profits run." or "The trend is your friend." (until it isn't), just to mention a few. Collecting more of those one-liners would be a great subject for another article. This post deals with getting with the trend.

rorschachHumans are very good at recognizing patterns in every day life, and mostly patterns that we are familiar with. For instance, it doesn't take us a whole lot of effort to recognize a face, even if that face is showing a different expression than the first time we saw it. Recognizing a road crossing, but from a different angle than the first time is equally easy.

physical goldInvesting in gold has been on every front page in the last two, three years. The financial crisis has scared a lot of investors who lost faith in everything but gold. Many investors buy gold in some form, in paper or physical gold. Investing in gold is not something from the last couple of years, but has been around for many years. It's just that the last couple of years, gold has every characteristic of being a bubble. Gold investors sometimes seem to lose all good sense of judgment and logic. Buying gold has almost become a sort of religion.

flash crashIt's been over a year now since we've witnessed the so-called flash crash. On May 6th 2010, within minutes the markets dropped several percentages, then bounced and recovered a large part of the losses. To relive those exciting moments, here are some video clips. If you know of any other clip that should be here, please send me an email. This post with video clips is mostly fun, but it's also showing us panic, anxiety, greed and fear. Besides crash flash videos, there are some other clips that show the emotions that sometimes come with trading.

memory laneBeing a short term trader, it's sometimes easy to forget about the larger picture. One could argue that short term traders couldn't care less about the larger picture or the long term view, but that's actually not the case. Trading is a game of chances, and as a trader, you make the trades that are likely to be successful. But it is also obvious that even trades that seem very likely to be successful can fail multiple times in a row.

conditioningWe have all heard of the famous experiment by the Russian physiologist Ivan Pavlov where dogs have been conditioned to expect food following a particular event. The Pavlov dogs have experienced the same sequence of events so often, at some point they know what's coming next without really thinking about it. They start to show emotions 'in advance', and salivate even before their food is served. This is one form of conditioning.

mr know it allMany traders read all the news, rumors, gossips they can get their hands on. And there's always more to read. Then they start convincing each other on chat forums that the market has to go in a certain direction based on that news. In the end they all agree, but we know what happens with crowd consensus.... it's not going to happen.

confidenceIn this article, I would like to discuss the subject of overconfidence. Maybe in some way overconfidence can be looked at as the exact opposite of perfectionism. Neither emotions serve a trader well as they do not take the market (movement) for what it really is.

perfectionismSome say in trading the true character of a person comes forward with all its strengths and weaknesses. Suppose a trader has a tendency to be perfect, to perform each and every little task in perfection. For people with perfectionism, it may not be that hard to function in everyday life, maybe with a little struggle here and there. But it's very hard to combine perfectionism with trading.

Subcategories

This section will explain how autotrading works and what the benefits are for investors in the Greed and Fear portfolio. Autotrading also offers the possibility to have the trading results verified by a trusted third party, the autotrading platform. Potential investors can easily see each and every transaction and how those results build up to the current state of the portfolio.

This section is about how trading signals work for the Greed and Fear model portfolio. It's a very good alternative to autotrading, and sometimes even preferable.

As a trader you need rules. One could also say that a trader needs a plan. The trading rules/plan will protect a trader from making decisions that he would otherwise not have made. Sometimes the stressful moments of the markets may disrupt the thought process. It is at those times that rules will tell a trader what to do.

The articles in this section are mostly about market psychology. As a trader, you have to be aware of market psychology, what it does to you, but also what it does to other market participants. Every trader at some point realizes that everything is not what it always seemed to be. There is a somewhat hidden reality behind the obvious one. Getting to know this hidden reality, this different view on the markets and human behavior, will likely make you a better a trader in the end.

The field of machine learning is a very fascinating one. And because the Greed and Fear indicator is a neural network, there's a lot to discuss about ways to apply neural networks and machine learning in trading.

This section has blog posts with a more educational character. For instance, how to place advanced orders, or how to use statistics to your advantage.