Greed and Fear - Daily trading signals based on mathematics and software, no opinion, no emotion, no ego. Now with verified trading results!

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Category: Market updates

trading update1A little bit late, but here's the monthly trading update of the Greed and Fear model portfolio. Trading results were very poor for April, have a quick look at the results-page of 2018.

For validation, don't forget to check out the actual and verified trading results which are continuously posted real time on the autotrading platform(s).

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Category: Results

results1Last year, a start was made with verified actual trading results and I will continue doing this moving forward. The result is based on trading only 1 S&P E-mini future with a $10.000,- base amount. This is the Greed and Fear model portfolio.

Month Result per month Performance
January +$1250,50 +12,50%
February -$1361,00 -13,61%
March +$3383,00 +33.83%
April -$2805,00 -28,05%
Total +$467,50 +4,68%

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Category: Market updates

trading update1It's that time of the month, the monthly trading update. If you've missed the previous one, it's recommended reading that first for better understanding. And if you just want the numbers, those are updated on the results-page of 2018.

For validation, don't forget to check out the actual and verified trading results which are continuously posted real time on the autotrading platform(s).

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Category: Market psychology

fallacy2Every now and then when I'm reading an article from the world of behavioral economics discussing a particular phenomenon, it makes you realize once again how much trading and investing is about human behavior.

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Category: Market psychology

financial analysts1After part 1 and part 2 of the 'Market gurus and their predictions'-series, there's now part 3. 

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Category: Market updates

trading update1Since I stopped posting the daily indicator and moved to an autotrading platform to publish trading signals, it has been relatively quiet on this blog with regards to market updates. That's about to change.

On a monthly basis I will now go through what happened that month. Of course, the actual and verified trading results are continuously posted real time on the autotrading platform(s), but some extra explanation on the trading decisions will be given in these monthly updates. This way current and potential investors will likely have a better understanding of how things work in the Greed and Fear model portfolio.

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Category: Market psychology

financial analysts1The first part of 'Market gurus and their predictions' has really caught some attention. Let's now move on to the next part about this subject.

Again, as mentioned in part 1, these pages are mostly meant as an eye opener that almost all of the 'mainstream' analysts have no added value in trading or investing. In fact, flipping a coin has a higher probability of making a correct call about expected market direction than those analysts. 

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Category: Results

verified1Actual and verified trading results of the Greed and Fear indicator are now available provided by trusted third parties. They are keeping track of the actual trading activity and record each and every trade made, based on the Greed and Fear indicator.

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Category: About

conditioning1First, autotrading is a great development for the trading community, both for investors as well as traders. It gets rid of all the fluff and ambiguous analysis that float around the internet, that whole crazy circus feeding the modern gold-rush.

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Category: Results

upgrade1Since the last upgrade to the Greed and Fear indicator, I have made new significant progress. As shown in the previous update, there was still some concern with the performance in the last couple of months of the simulation. After reconfiguring the neural network and re-transforming the input data, that concern is now gone. The performance now manages to go steadily higher in that last couple of months as well to end up somewhere around the 10000 points, much higher than previous results.

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Category: Market psychology

financial analysts1As a trader or investor, you certainly have noticed the tons of analysts and self-proclaimed gurus out there who all give their opinion about what will likely happen next in the markets. But are they any good?

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Category: About

neural networkEarly visitors of this blog have seen my daily posts for years now with the so called Greed and Fear indicator and to which direction it was pointing. This was my initial attempt to expose the indicator to the public. Along the way, the performance was measured of course, to see if it was any good and useful in trading. The most honest way to measure this performance was by counting index points 'it called right' subtracted by 'index points it called wrong', as I've explained here in more detail.

But during all those year, I never explained in some more detail what the Greed and Fear indicator really was, while this is probably one of the most fascinating subjects today: a neural network! The more widely known terminology would be machine learning, artificial intelligence etc. There are subtle differences, but it all comes down to 'intelligent software'.

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Category: Market psychology

complain1"Never complain, never explain" - it's a well known quote. Famous people have used it, management gurus have used it, too many to accurately determine who initially came up with it. Let's apply this to trading, because trading is probably the ultimate activity where this quote fits extremely well.