November again did not give us many signals. In total there were 4 trades set up, but only one got filled which turned out to be a losing one. The net result for November is set at -$706,00
The yearly result of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for 2020 has been updated.
Today's trade was again the only one this month. There were some trades set up earlier this month, but they never got filled. Today's trade had an overnight fill and stop-loss as well. At the moment of this writing, that stop-loss also was the exact low(!) This is what the market does sometimes. Good trading is not always rewarded as bad trading is not always punished.
Entry was 0,54% below the previous close, so we were anticipating a decent pullback. Overnight the market went up higher first, some 20 points. Next, it dropped right to our stop-loss and then took off again.
Post edit: later in the session, price drops significantly below our stop-loss level. Who would have thought....
In our previous post about gaps, we looked at market behavior around opening-gaps and would generally happen during that same trading session. But nothing spectacular came out, an opening-gap basically meant nothing for further price action that day. Also, the average size of an opening-gap turned out to be a few factors smaller than average daily volatility, so those margins were easily absorbed regardless of whether there was an opening gap or not.
Now suppose the opening-gap does not get closed during the same trading day. How does affect the market in the next couple of days? Does price gravitate back towards such a gap, as if it wants to pull in price or doesn't it have any significant meaning as we saw in the opening-gaps analysis? Let's dive in.
- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Category: Results
In 2017, a start was made with verified actual trading results. Now we continue doing so for the year 2020. The result is based on trading only 1 E-mini S&P future with a (minimum) $10.000,- base amount. This is the Greed and Fear model portfolio. With the accumulated profits, the value of this portfolio stands at $25370,50 at the start of 2020.
Today's trade was the only one this month. Yesterday evening, I entered an order and sent an e-mail to the investors. As always, the order was a limit order anticipating intraday pullback. When the limit was hit, it first looked like an almost exact hit. But an hour later the ES dropped roughly 13 points below the initial entry, and then later that session again.
From that low, it took off right through our profit target. The bracket order is such a fantastic order type that way. Once the profit target is reached, the position is closed automatically and profit taken. Towards the end of the session, we're seeing some selling, getting well below our profit point which always feels good.
There's a lot of talk about so-called gaps. General wisdom says they will be closed. But is that true? Is there a statistical edge about gaps that we can use in our trading? Let's find out.
From now on, the trades that are made for the Greed and Fear model portfolio will be reported on the blog after they are closed. This will result in a more accurate and up-to-date reporting of the trading result.
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