- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Category: Results
In 2017, a start was made with verified actual trading results. Now we continue doing so for the year 2021.
The total net profit stands at $23677,50 at the start of 2022 trading exactly one ES E-mini S&P 500 futures contract. On average this equals $4735,50 net profit per year.
Before you invest in the model portfolio, make sure you understand the risks involved in trading futures.
The Greed and Fear model portfolio has had a difficult time finding good entries in the last 3 months of 2021. The market often left without us being there. As explained in many previous posts, the trick is to join after a pullback, but of course without hitting the stop loss. This proved especially difficult with higher volatility. Even when the volatility is average in percentage terms, in points it means a higher and higher amount because of the higher and higher prices. Fortunately, at least no losses were incurred in these last months.
Interactive Brokers (IB) is a popular broker, operating in several counties around the world, usually under local national names. Their trading platform is the same everywhere, it's the Trader Workstation or TWS. For novice users, it may be somewhat intimidating at first glance, but once you get a good understanding, you'll see it has a lot of powerful features to offer.
We have learned that disciplined trading is the only way to survive in this business. The best way to adhere to your own strict trading rules is to automate things. Let your orders take care of your trading, not your brain because the human brain usually fails in (short-term) trading. In order to achieve this, we need an extensive set of order types. TWS has just that, so let's get into it.
In our previous post about gaps, we looked at market behavior around opening-gaps and would generally happen during that same trading session. But nothing spectacular came out, an opening-gap basically meant nothing for further price action that day. Also, the average size of an opening-gap turned out to be a few factors smaller than average daily volatility, so those margins were easily absorbed regardless of whether there was an opening gap or not.
Now suppose the opening-gap does not get closed during the same trading day. How does affect the market in the next couple of days? Does price gravitate back towards such a gap, as if it wants to pull in price or doesn't it have any significant meaning as we saw in the opening-gaps analysis? Let's dive in.
There's a lot of talk about so-called gaps. General wisdom says they will be closed. But is that true? Is there a statistical edge about gaps that we can use in our trading? Let's find out.
If you use any search engine and type in the phrase "How to become a successful short-term trader" or anything similar, you will find roughly 70 million(!) websites that will help you in achieving that goal, or so it seems. While in reality, there's only one right and honest answer which is more like this: "There is an extremely low probability you will ever be successful in short-term trading, and you will most likely lose all funds in your account".
First, autotrading is a great development for the trading community, both for investors as well as traders. It gets rid of all the fluff and ambiguous analysis that float around the internet, that whole crazy circus feeding the modern gold-rush.