Greed and Fear - Daily trading signals based on mathematics and software, no opinion, no emotion, no ego. Now with verified trading results!

Trading results: 
2019 +$5820,00
2018 +$1342,50
2017 +$5843,00
All verified! 
(trading exactly one E-mini S&P 500 future for the Greed and Fear model portfolio)

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Parent Category: Trading
Category: Market psychology

stock chartIf you use any search engine and type in the phrase "How to become a successful short term trader" or anything similar, you will find roughly 70 million(!) websites that will help you in achieving that goal, or so it seems. While in reality, there's only one right and honest answer which is more like this: "There is an extremely low probability you will ever be successful in short term trading, and you will most likely lose all funds in your account".

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Parent Category: Today
Category: Market updates

trading update

This month too shows that it is not necessary to execute many trades in order to be profitable. Just one trade for the month of April, only one(!) I should add though that 3 limit orders were missed before number 4 was an accurate hit and profitable. The position ran 4 days, which is above average for my trading.

Still, it should be better to make slightly more trades so that trading results more accurately reflect the neural network's performance. In other words, the last couple of winners could just be lucky shots. At some point, the losing trades will return and then it will be necessary to keep trading in order to align with the long term statistics.

So in short, April brought us a net profit of  $1169,00 trading only one S&P E-mini future contract. The performance of the Greed and Fear model portfolio for this year now stands at a net result of  $5820,00.

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Category: Results

resultsIn 2017, a start was made with verified actual trading results, all through a difficult but still profitable 2018. Now we continue doing so for the year 2019. The result is based on trading only 1 E-mini S&P future with a (minimum) $10.000,- base amount. This is the Greed and Fear model portfolio. With the accumulated profits, the value of this portfolio stands at $17185,50 at the start of 2019.

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Parent Category: Trading
Category: Market psychology

financial analystsAfter part 1 and part 2 of the 'Market gurus and their predictions'-series, there's now part 3. 

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Parent Category: Trading
Category: Market psychology

sharpshooter_fallacyEvery now and then when I'm reading an article from the world of behavioral economics discussing a particular phenomenon, it makes you realize once again how much trading and investing is about human behavior.

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Parent Category: Trading
Category: Autotrading

conditioningFirst, autotrading is a great development for the trading community, both for investors as well as traders. It gets rid of all the fluff and ambiguous analysis that float around the internet, that whole crazy circus feeding the modern gold-rush.

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Parent Category: Trading
Category: Machine learning

neural networkEarly visitors of this blog have seen my daily posts for years now with the so called Greed and Fear indicator and to which direction it was pointing. This was my initial attempt to expose the indicator to the public. Along the way, the performance was measured of course, to see if it was any good and useful in trading. The most honest way to measure this performance was by counting index points 'it called right' subtracted by 'index points it called wrong', as I've explained here in more detail.

But during all those year, I never explained in some more detail what the Greed and Fear indicator really was, while this is probably one of the most fascinating subjects today: a neural network! The more widely known terminology would be machine learning, artificial intelligence etc. There are subtle differences, but it all comes down to 'intelligent software'.