Trading update - May 2022
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Parent Category: Today
- Category: Market updates
The month of May had a significantly higher daily volatility. On average, the ES E-Mini has a daily range from low to high of 1.6% In May, this averaged 2.8% This means that after the open buy or sell of a trade, there is a high probability that the stop loss will also be hit.
Furthermore, on many trading days, we saw that the futures immediately chose a specific direction from the opening. The trading method of the model portfolio is based on the fact that, on average, there is always some counter-movement intraday. In anticipation of that small counter-movement, a limit order is placed, but that opportunity thus occurred less frequently. The only signal that was sent had a limit price which unfortunately was not hit.
Trade of the Day: -$1008,00 April 26th, 2022
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Parent Category: Today
- Category: Market updates
After a long time of mixed signals and/or difficult market circumstances, all signs were right to take this long trade. The previous day showed a significant rally into the close, the neural networks all turned bullish.
Results 2022 Greed & Fear model portfolio
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Category: Results
In 2017, a start was made with verified actual trading results. Now we continue doing so for the year 2022.
The total net profit stands at $23677,50 at the start of 2022 trading exactly one ES E-mini S&P 500 futures contract. On average this equals $4735,50 net profit per year.
Before you invest in the model portfolio, make sure you understand the risks involved in trading futures.
Trading signal service
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Parent Category: Trading
- Category: Trading signals
If you, as an investor concluded that autotrading is not the way to go, then let's look at another option: trading signal service.
Creating advanced orders step-by-step in Trader Workstation (TWS by Interactive Brokers)
Interactive Brokers (IB) is a popular broker, operating in several counties around the world, usually under local national names. Their trading platform is the same everywhere, it's the Trader Workstation or TWS. For novice users, it may be somewhat intimidating at first glance, but once you get a good understanding, you'll see it has a lot of powerful features to offer.
We have learned that disciplined trading is the only way to survive in this business. The best way to adhere to your own strict trading rules is to automate things. Let your orders take care of your trading, not your brain because the human brain usually fails in (short-term) trading. In order to achieve this, we need an extensive set of order types. TWS has just that, so let's get into it.
Mind the gap: on the daily chart
In our previous post about gaps, we looked at market behavior around opening-gaps and would generally happen during that same trading session. But nothing spectacular came out, an opening-gap basically meant nothing for further price action that day. Also, the average size of an opening-gap turned out to be a few factors smaller than average daily volatility, so those margins were easily absorbed regardless of whether there was an opening gap or not.
Now suppose the opening-gap does not get closed during the same trading day. How does affect the market in the next couple of days? Does price gravitate back towards such a gap, as if it wants to pull in price or doesn't it have any significant meaning as we saw in the opening-gaps analysis? Let's dive in.
Mind the gap: opening gap
There's a lot of talk about so-called gaps. General wisdom says they will be closed. But is that true? Is there a statistical edge about gaps that we can use in our trading? Let's find out.
Market gurus and their predictions - Part 4
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Parent Category: Trading
- Category: Market psychology
After part 3, we move on to part 4 of this series of 'Market gurus and their predictions'. If you're new to this, you may want to start with the first part for some additional explanation.
The fallacy of becoming a successful short term trader
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Parent Category: Trading
- Category: Market psychology
If you use any search engine and type in the phrase "How to become a successful short-term trader" or anything similar, you will find roughly 70 million(!) websites that will help you in achieving that goal, or so it seems. While in reality, there's only one right and honest answer which is more like this: "There is an extremely low probability you will ever be successful in short-term trading, and you will most likely lose all funds in your account".
What is autotrading?
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Parent Category: Trading
- Category: Autotrading
First, autotrading is a great development for the trading community, both for investors as well as traders. It gets rid of all the fluff and ambiguous analysis that float around the internet, that whole crazy circus feeding the modern gold-rush.