There was a bug...
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Category: Machine learning
If you're a software developer like me, then the phenomenon of a so-called bug is a well know thing. The other day, I ran some tests and discovered one in my neural network which has significantly degraded the performance in the last 6 months.
Trading update - May 2018
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Category: Market updates
The miserable performance of April certainly wasn't compensated in May. This month the model portfolio posted a net trading loss of $936,50 in 4 long trades on the E-mini S&P (the only thing that's traded in the model portfolio).
The neural network once again had a difficult time making the right calls of expected market direction, we were on the wrong side of market again and again. The NN generated many flip-flopping signals, just as the stock market flip-flopped its direction. Unfortunately the signals did not line up with market movement at the right moment so the NN was always just behind the curve.
Results 2018 Greed & Fear indicator
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Category: Results
Last year, a start was made with verified actual trading results and I will continue doing this moving forward. The result is based on trading only 1 E-mini S&P future with a (minimum) $10.000,- base amount. This is the Greed and Fear model portfolio.
| Month | Result per month | Performance |
| January | +$1250,50 | +12,50% |
| February | -$1361,00 | -13,61% |
| March | +$3383,00 | +33.83% |
| April | -$2805,00 | -28,05% |
| May | -$936,50 | -9,37% |
| Total | -$469,00 | -4,69% |
Texas sharpshooter fallacy
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Category: Market psychology
Every now and then when I'm reading an article from the world of behavioral economics discussing a particular phenomenon, it makes you realize once again how much trading and investing is about human behavior.
Market gurus and their predictions - Part 3
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Category: Market psychology
After part 1 and part 2 of the 'Market gurus and their predictions'-series, there's now part 3.
Market gurus and their predictions - Part 2
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Category: Market psychology
The first part of 'Market gurus and their predictions' has really caught some attention. Let's now move on to the next part about this subject.
Again, as mentioned in part 1, these pages are mostly meant as an eye opener that almost all of the 'mainstream' analysts have no added value in trading or investing. In fact, flipping a coin has a higher probability of making a correct call about expected market direction than those analysts.
Autotrading result with actual and verified results
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Category: Autotrading
Actual and verified trading results of the Greed and Fear indicator are now available provided by trusted third parties. They are keeping track of the actual trading activity and record each and every trade made, based on the Greed and Fear indicator.
What is autotrading?
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Category: Autotrading
First, autotrading is a great development for the trading community, both for investors as well as traders. It gets rid of all the fluff and ambiguous analysis that float around the internet, that whole crazy circus feeding the modern gold-rush.
Greed and Fear indicator upgrade - July 2017
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Category: Machine learning
Since the last upgrade to the Greed and Fear indicator, I have made new significant progress. As shown in the previous update, there was still some concern with the performance in the last couple of months of the simulation. After reconfiguring the neural network and re-transforming the input data, that concern is now gone. The performance now manages to go steadily higher in that last couple of months as well to end up somewhere around the 10000 points, much higher than previous results.
Market gurus and their predictions
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Category: Market psychology
As a trader or investor, you certainly have noticed the tons of analysts and self-proclaimed gurus out there who all give their opinion about what will likely happen next in the markets. But are they any good?
This part 1 of a series. Also make sure to check out part 2 and part 3.
What really is the Greed and Fear indicator? A neural network!
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Category: Machine learning
Early visitors of this blog have seen my daily posts for years now with the so called Greed and Fear indicator and to which direction it was pointing. This was my initial attempt to expose the indicator to the public. Along the way, the performance was measured of course, to see if it was any good and useful in trading. The most honest way to measure this performance was by counting index points 'it called right' subtracted by 'index points it called wrong', as I've explained here in more detail.
But during all those year, I never explained in some more detail what the Greed and Fear indicator really was, while this is probably one of the most fascinating subjects today: a neural network! The more widely known terminology would be machine learning, artificial intelligence etc. There are subtle differences, but it all comes down to 'intelligent software'.
Never complain, never explain. You are a trader.
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- Written by Raoul Suurmeijer
- Category: Market psychology
"Never complain, never explain" - it's a well known quote. Famous people have used it, management gurus have used it, too many to accurately determine who initially came up with it. Let's apply this to trading, because trading is probably the ultimate activity where this quote fits extremely well.