Greed and Fear - Daily trading signals based on mathematics and software, no opinion, no emotion, no ego. Now with verified trading results!

Trading results: 
2020 +$2640,00
2019 +$8185,00
2018 +$1342,50
2017 +$5843,00
All verified! 
(trading exactly one E-mini S&P 500 future for the Greed and Fear model portfolio)

  • Texas sharpshooter fallacy

    sharpshooter_fallacyEvery now and then when I'm reading an article from the world of behavioral economics discussing a particular phenomenon, it makes you realize once again how much trading and investing is about human behavior.

  • What did you see?

    rorschachHumans are very good at recognizing patterns in every day life, and mostly patterns that we are familiar with. For instance, it doesn't take us a whole lot of effort to recognize a face, even if that face is showing a different expression than the first time we saw it. Recognizing a road crossing, but from a different angle than the first time is equally easy.

  • What really is the Greed and Fear indicator? A neural network!

    neural networkEarly visitors of this blog have seen my daily posts for years now with the so-called Greed and Fear indicator and to which direction it was pointing. This was my initial attempt to expose the indicator to the public. Along the way, the performance was measured of course, to see if it was any good and useful in trading. The most honest way to measure this performance was by counting index points 'it called right' subtracted by 'index points it called wrong', as I've explained here in more detail.

    But during all those years, I never explained in some more detail what the Greed and Fear indicator really was, while this is probably one of the most fascinating subjects today: a neural network! The more widely known terminology would be machine learning, artificial intelligence, etc. There are subtle differences, but it all comes down to 'intelligent software'.